Researchers led by the University of Florida's Ted Schuur last year calculated that the top 3 meters (10 feet) of permafrost alone contain more carbon than is currently in the atmosphere."It's safe to say the surface permafrost, 3 to 5 meters, is at risk of thawing in the next 100 years," Schuur said by telephone from an Alaska research site. "It can't stay intact.
...
"If we lost just 1 percent of the carbon in permafrost today, we'd be close to a year's contributions from industrial sources," he said. "I don't think policymakers have woken up to this. It's not in their risk assessments."
How likely is a major release?
"I don't think it's a case of likelihood," he said. "I think we are playing with fire."
As Arctic Ocean warms, megatonnes of methane bubble up (NewScientist.com, 17 Aug '09) "It's been predicted for years, and now it's happening. Deep in the Arctic Ocean, water warmed by climate change is forcing the release of methane from beneath the sea floor"...The region where the team found the plumes is being warmed by the West Spitsbergen current, which has warmed by 1 C (or 1.8 F) over the past 30 years ( "Bigger bubbles of methane make it all the way to the top, but smaller ones dissolve," says Minshull. Just because it fails to reach the surface doesn't mean the methane is harmless, though, as some of it gets converted to carbon dioxide. The CO2 then dissolves in seawater and makes the oceans more acidic)(And it is possible that other, more vigorous plumes are releasing methane into the atmosphere. The team studied only one group of plumes, which were in a small area and were erratic. "Almost none of the Arctic has been surveyed in a way that might detect a gas release like this,)(methane may not be from hydrate, but could be coming from the methane's primary source, which might be deep within the Earth. If that was the case, the warming of the West Spitsbergen current may not be to blame. He says that the large amounts of methane being released make this unlikely, however: "If the methane is all primary, it would be an unprecedented amount." )
"We found that schemes to emit precursor gases in large quantities would be extremely difficult to design and implement within the constraints of a narrow tolerance for error, and in addition, the outcomes would be very sensitive to variables over which we would have little control, such as the stability and mixing conditions that occur locally,""We're talking about tinkering with the climate system that affects everybody on Earth," said Turco, an atmospheric chemist with expertise in the microphysics of fine particles suspended in the atmosphere. "Some of the ideas are extreme. There would certainly be winners and losers, but no one would know who until it's too late.
..."Advocates of geoengineering have tried to make climate engineering sound so simple," he added. "It's not simple at all. We now know that the properties and effects of a geoengineered particle layer in the stratosphere would be far more unpredictable, for example, than the physics of global warming associated with carbon dioxide emissions. Embarking on such a project could be foolhardy."
Northern wetlands, where permanently frozen soil locks up billions of tons of carbon, are at risk from climate change because warming is forecast to be more extreme at high latitudes The melting of wetland permafrost in the Arctic and the resulting release of carbon into the atmosphere may be "unstoppable" in the next 20 years, but wetlands closer to the equator, like those in Louisiana, can be restored, he said.
The panel's chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, highlighted the need to deal with impacts which are coming whether or not global emissions are curbed. Even if levels of CO2 in the atmosphere stayed where they are now, he said, research showed sea levels would rise by between 0.4 and 1.4 metres simply because sea water would continue warming up, which makes it expand. "This is a very important finding, likely to bring major changes to coastlines and inundating low-lying areas, with a great effect in river deltas and low-lying islands," he said. "If you add to this the melting of some of the ice bodies on Earth, this gives a picture of the kinds of issue we are likely to face ." During the course of its existence, it has become more certain that modern-day climate change is real and principally due to human activities; it has also become firmer about the scale of the impacts. "If you look at the overall picture of impacts, both those occurring now and those projected for the future, they appear to be both larger and appearing earlier than we thought [in our 2001 report]," Martin Parry, co-chair of the impacts working group, told BBC News. "Some of the changes that we previously projected for around 2020 or 2030 are occurring now, such as the Arctic melt and shifts in the locations of various species."
IPCC PROJECTIONS Probable temperature rise between 1.8C (by 3.25F) and 4C (by 7.2 F) Possible temperature rise between 1.1C (by 2F) and 6.4C (by 11.5 F) Sea level most likely to rise by 28-43cm Arctic summer sea ice disappears in second half of century Increase in heatwaves very likely Increase in tropical storm intensity likely
2) New evidence suggests that to avoid dangerous climate change,
it's not enough to limit the heating up of the Earth by "only" 2
degrees Celsius. Current proposals may allow the earth to heat up
by not just 2 but even 3 degrees Celsius: "Proposals for a 60% cut
on 1990 levels by 2050 implies a 3 degrees C target. The last time
temperatures were 3 degrees C higher than our pre-industrial
levels, the northern hemisphere was free of glaciers and ice
sheets, beech trees grew in the Transantarctic mountains, sea
levels were 25 metres higher" and of course many politicians don't
want to even have a 60% cut by 2050.
http://peakoil.com/article33203.html
Compare with:
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3) At the same time, even if we wanted to allow the dangers of a full
2 degrees Celsius, "Only the total elimination of industrial
emissions [a 100% cut so we are fully non-fossil fuels energy
wise) will succeed in limiting climate change to a 20C rise in
temperatures, according to computer analysis of climate
change. Anything above this target has been identified as
"dangerous" by some scientists, and the limit has been adopted by
many policymakers."
The researchers say their study highlights the shortcomings of
governmental plans to limit climate change.
http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn12775-zero-emissions-needed-to-avert-dangerous-warming.html
TALE OF DECLINE * There is "visible and unequivocal" evidence of the impacts of climate change * Many farming systems have reached their limits of production * Warmer temperatures and ocean acidification threaten food supplies * 1.8 billion people face water shortages by 2025 * Three-quarters of marine fisheries exploited to or beyond their limits * Exposure to pollutants causes 20% of disease in developing nations * Pollution being "exported" to developing world * About 60% of "ecosystem services" are degraded
These calculations are based on scenarios in which atmospheric concentrations of CO2, which stand at 380 parts per million (ppm) today, peak at between 410-421 ppm by around 2050, before falling to between 355-366 ppm by 2100. These conclusions go further than the Stern Review's report, which proposes a long-term goal of stabilising greenhouse gases at 450-550 ppm...scenarios in which CO2 stabilised at 450 ppm had a 46%-86% chance of exceeding 2C 500 ppm had a 70%-95% chance; and 550 ppm had a 78%-99% chance. Even more troublingly, these scenarios had an 11%-24%, 18%-47% and 28%-71% chance respectively of exceeding a 3C rise
(06 nov)Australia is the world's driest inhabited continent ..But scientists say global warming is changing rainfall patterns, particularly in the populated southwest and southeastern corners, causing a long-term drop in annual rainfall and greater extremes of weather. Townfolk were limited to 100-second showers////Goulburn's water usage has been halved and will be cut further if it does not rain. Each person is now down to 120 litres a day -- a washing machine full --- compared with 400 litres in big cities.////
"It may seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society could choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the process of doing." -Elizabeth Kolbert in the New Yorker, in her series on climate change (more accurately, climate disruption/distabilization)
"The planet Venus is a little closer to the sun than Earth is, but the physics should permit Venus to be very earthlike in temperature. But it's not.Venus has a runaway greenhouse effect and a surface temperature hotter than molten lead. As we have seen, distance from the sun is only one of several variables that determine habitability on Earth. At 93 million miles from the sun, our planet could be a frozen wasteland, or it could be a Venusian inferno. The fact is that it is neither. Instead it has this delicately balanced partial greenhouse effect that is ideal for creatures like us. We mess with that greenhouse effect at our peril." -Physicist and Caltech Vice-Provost David Goodstein (Author, "Out of Gas")
The atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide has reached a new high, say US researchers. (05 mar/apr, BBC)
Arctic permafrost has warmed by up to 2 degrees Celsius in recent decades, with soils thawing to greater depths..The Greenland ice sheet is the largest land ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere. It holds enough fresh water to raise the earth's sea level by 7.2 meters (24 feet) if it were to melt completely, a result expected if the regional temperature rises 3 degrees Celsius. Scientists project that concentrations of greenhouse gases will be high enough by 2100 to push temperatures past this threshold.
Beyond a 2 degrees rise, "the risks to human societies and ecosystems grow significantly" the report said, adding there would be a risk of "abrupt, accelerated, or runaway climate change." It warned of "climatic tipping points" such as the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets melting and the Gulf Stream shutting down.
The American Academy of Science, the most prestegious (and publisher of Science Magazine, one of the two most prestegious science journals (the other being the journal Nature): http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2004/0616climateIntro.shtml "Governments and consumers in the United States and worldwide should take immediate steps to reduce the threat of global warming and to prepare for a future in which coastal flooding, reduced crop yields and elevated rates of climate-related illness are all but certain, top U.S. scientists said Tuesday. "At a meeting organized by AAAS and its journal, Science, the climate researchers argued that while some policy experts and sectors of the public dispute the risk, there is in fact no cause for doubt: The world is significantly warmer today than it was a century ago -- and it's getting warmer.." They note (http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2004/0616climate.shtml) under "Climate experts urge immediate action to offset impact of global warming" that: "Scientists generally agree that temperatures are rising as a result of human activities such as fossil-fuel burning, which releases carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases. This warming has caused glacial melting and subsequent increases in sea levels worldwide.."
At least 94 coal-fired electric power plants - with the capacity to power 62 million American homes - are now planned across 36 states. ***Surprisingly, few state officials or even environmentalists are aware of the magnitude of the new coal rush..."I certainly wasn't aware it was 62 gigawatts. That's an awful lot more coal to burn," says Dan Becker, director of global warming and energy program at the Sierra Club. "I think most Americans would be shocked that utilities are dragging the 19th century into the 21st century."
Robert Dickinson, an atmospheric scientist and climate modeler at the Georgia Institute of Technology, calculates the new US coal plants would add roughly one-tenth of 1 percent to the world's annual carbon-dioxide emissions. "It doesn't sound as bad as SUVs, but we really should be going the other direction," he says. "All these little things add up. How much is east Asia going to add? The rest of the world?"
He said: "It's old stuff, about the possible collapse of the thermohaline circulation which keeps the Gulf Stream flowing to north-west Europe.
"If that stopped, average temperatures in countries like the UK could drop by about five degrees. [Centigrade]
"It's a possible 'tipping point', a critical stage in global warming. But it's only one such point.
BBC 04 febScientists at the University of California, Riverside and Columbia University have found evidence of the release of an enormous quantity of methane gas as ice sheets melted at the end of a global ice age about 600 million years ago, possibly altering the ocean's chemistry, influencing oxygen levels in the ocean and atmosphere, and enhancing climate warming because methane is a powerful greenhouse gas..Methane clathrates are increasingly thought to play a role in mass extinctions associated with significant climate change in the Earth's history, and they are a large and exceedingly unstable source of greenhouse gas, greater than the equivalent of instantaneously burning all the oil reserves on Earth.
"Linking these dramatic climate events to changes in the methane clathrate pool has important implications for the stability of our current climate," said Martin Kennedy, an associate professor of geology at UC Riverside. "The Earth has a large unstable pool of these clathrates in ocean sediments today, and it is thought that a few degrees of ocean warming could trigger large-scale release into the atmosphere. We now have strong evidence of this doomsday scenario in one of the most important intervals of Earth's biologic history".
Brown said that the world will be facing a 96 million ton shortfall in grain this year following poor harvests in the United States and India in 2002, and a poor harvest in Europe due to scorching temperatures this year. Shortfalls worldwide have been made up through dwindling grain reserves.
Studies by the International Rice Institute and the US-based Carnegie Institution have shown that grain production can fall 10 percent with a one degree celsius (1.7 degree fahrenheit) increase in temperature, as the increased heat stresses the plants.
The UN's International Panel on Climate Control has come to the conclusion that global warming from greenhouse gases caused by the burning of fossil fuels will lead to temperature rises from two to five degrees celsius this century
